5 Reasons Why ‘Wicked’ Could Fly to Best Picture Victory (2024)

Universal Pictures’ adaptation of the beloved Broadway musical “Wicked” has stormed into awards season, fueled by spectacular ticket sales, glowing reviews and a kind of cultural ubiquity that happens once, maybe twice a year. And the film’s dominance won’t end at the box office. “Wicked” could cast a powerful spell on Oscar voters too, positioning the film as a serious contender for the best picture prize. Directed by Jon M. Chu, the film stands out in a competitive and wide-open awards season dominated by blockbuster sequels like Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II.”

Here are five reasons why the Academy Awards could be primed for a big green takeover.

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Box office bona fides

Box office riches often play a crucial role in improving a film’s Oscar chances, especially in the race for the top honor. “Wicked” opened to gargantuan numbers, demonstrating broad audience appeal. That resonates with Academy voters, who are often more inclined to reward films that are critically acclaimed and commercially successful. Robust box office hauls have been pivotal for past best picture winners like “Titanic” (1997), “Forrest Gump” (1994) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003).

Beyond the financial windfall, the boffo box office results give Universal the resources to mount an aggressive awards campaign.

Critical Acclaim and Genre Representation

“Wicked” has enjoyed critical praise. Reviews, which hover in the high 80s and low 90s on Rotten Tomatoes, highlight Chu’s direction, the film’s lavish visuals and the standout performances from Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. While musicals historically face genre biases, “Wicked” is carving a path akin to success stories like “Chicago” (2002), which won six Oscars including best picture, and “La La Land” (2016), which dominated with 14 nominations (and for a few fleeting moments thought it won best picture).

The film’s spectacular set-pieces and emotional depth have given critics plenty to celebrate. Balancing big-screen magic with nuanced storytelling could give “Wicked” the credibility needed to transcend the “crowd-pleaser” label and appeal to the Academy’s auteur-driven sensibilities.

A Feel-Good Message for Uncertain Times

Oscar voters often gravitate toward films that offer hope and optimism, especially during times of societal or political turbulence. “Wicked” presents a universal message of friendship, resilience and defiance of the odds, themes that could strike a chord with audiences amid today’s climate of polarization. This dynamic was a key factor in the success of recent winners like “CODA” (2021), which celebrated inclusivity and family bonds mere months after the Ukraine-Russian conflict began.

Coming on the heels of a bitterly fought presidential election, the heartfelt story could be exactly what Academy members are looking for.

The Preferential Ballot Advantage

In a year without a clear frontrunner, the Academy’s preferential ballot system could be instrumental in determining the ceremony’s big winner. Films that are widely liked — even if they are not universally loved — often gain an edge by securing high placements across ballots. With major contenders like “The Brutalist” and “Gladiator II” sparking divided reactions, “Wicked” may emerge as the consensus pick.

This system helped films like “Green Book” (2018) and “Moonlight” (2016) cross the finish line in unpredictable years. With its accessible story, dazzling production, and passionate fan base, “Wicked” has all the makings of a movie that could dominate the No. 2 and No. 3 slots on ballots — enough to secure the big W.

Dominance in Technical Categories

The Academy’s artisan branches — such as cinematography, production design and costumes — constitute more than 65% of its voting body, and “Wicked” is poised to shine in these areas. It is expected to be a force in below-the-line races, particularly production and costume design, along with sound and visual effects, thanks to its intricate reimagining of Oz’s magical landscapes. Films with strong showings among the crafts, like “Oppenheimer” and “The Shape of Water,” often build momentum toward a victory. If “Wicked” secures multiple votes in these categories, those same voters — all of whom also cast ballots for best picture — could propel the film to the top of their lists.

Will “Wicked” be that pop-u-lar? Let’s see how long the buzz lasts.

Below are this week’s Oscar predictions (in alphabetical order) in all 23 categories.

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Nov. 26, 2024)

Best Picture“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
“The Room Next Door”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”

Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked”
Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II”

ActorAdrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”

Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”

Supporting ActorYura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”

Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Original Screenplay“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Hard Truths”
“A Real Pain”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

Adapted Screenplay“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Room Next Door”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”

Animated Feature“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”

Production Design“Blitz”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”

Cinematography“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”

Costume Design“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Maria”
“Wicked”

Film Editing“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Wicked”

Makeup and Hairstyling“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Sound
“Blitz”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”

Visual Effects
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”

Original Score“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Room Next Door”
“The Wild Robot”

Original Song“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man”
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot”

Documentary Feature“Dahomey”
“Daughters”
“No Other Land”
“Sugarcane”
“Will & Harper”

International Feature“Dahomey” from Senegal
“Emilia Pérez” from France
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
“Kneecap” from Ireland”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany

Animated Short
“An Almost Christmas Story”
“Back to Normal”
“Humantis”
“Remember Us”
“Silent Panorama”

Documentary Short
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Julia’s Stepping Stones”
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World”
“Motorcycle Mary”
“A Swim Lesson”

Live Action Short
“Dovecote”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
“Motherland”
“Ripe!”
“Room Taken”

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• Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Yes, It's Possible. Ariana Grande Can Win for 'Wicked'

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